Divided Opinions: How the Trump Assassination Attempt Might Influence the Election
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August 20, 2024The recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump has sparked a range of reactions, but how much has it really swayed public opinion? Our latest data dives into the details, revealing that while there are shifts in perception, a majority of people remain steadfast in their views on Trump.
General
The data indicates that the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump has not significantly altered public opinion. A majority of 58% report that their opinion has not changed. Among those whose views have shifted, 21% view Trump more favorably, while 14% view him less favorably. A small portion, 7%, remains unsure. This suggests that while the incident has had some impact, the majority of people’s opinions about Trump remain unchanged.
Gender
The gender breakdown reveals that males are more likely to view Trump more favorably after the incident, with 25% reporting a positive shift compared to 18% of females. Slightly more females (14%) view him less favorably than males (13%). The majority of both genders report no change in their opinion, though this is more pronounced among females (60%) than males (56%). Additionally, 8% of females are unsure about their opinion change, compared to 6% of males.
Political Affiliation
The political breakdown shows significant differences in how the incident has affected views on Trump. Among Republicans, 42% now view him more favorably, compared to just 9% of Democrats, 17% of Independents, and 6% of those identifying as Other. Conversely, 24% of Democrats view him less favorably, compared to only 5% of Republicans, 13% of Independents, and 9% of Others. A majority in each group report no change in their opinion, with 63% of both Democrats and Independents, 53% of Others, and 50% of Republicans maintaining their previous views.
Age
The age breakdown reveals distinct patterns in how the incident has influenced views on Trump. Younger age groups are more likely to view him more favorably, with 27% of 18-24-year-olds and 24% of 25-34-year-olds reporting a positive shift, compared to just 16% of those 65 and older. Conversely, unfavorable views are highest among the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups (20% and 19%, respectively) and lowest among the 65+ group (9%). A significant majority of older respondents (65+) report no change in their opinion (73%), followed by those aged 45-64 (66%) and 35-44 (56%).
Panel Breakdown
The panel breakdown reveals notable differences in perceptions. Panel N has the highest percentage of respondents who now view him more favorably (27%), whereas Panel M has only 16% viewing him more favorably, a difference of 11%. There is a 26% difference between Panel M (72%) and Panel N (46%) in response to their opinion not having changed.
This is an excellent representation of where quality data sampling matters. At EMI, we prioritize strategically blending sample sources to balance demographics as well as behaviors and attitudes to ensure that we provide the most representative and accurate data. Download The Sample Landscape: 2024 Edition to better understand how panels differ from one another and how they impact your data.
