The 2018 primary season kicks off tomorrow starting with Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia, and continues for the next couple months as other states hold their primaries. While mid-term elections generally have less scrutiny than presidential elections, this is the first real test for pollsters in the US since the 2016 presidential election, with 35 US Senate seats up for grabs in November.
Since the 2016 election, polling companies have been making changes around how they conduct their research to improve their accuracy, and the 2018 elections will be the test if the changes have worked. There are some big questions to be answered with the coming primary season, including:
How these questions are answered will impact polling and its effect on the midterms in November, as well as the 2020 presidential election.
Want to find out why polling is the most challenging form of market research, check out our recent blog.
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