Is This Trump’s Third Run or His Indictment?

You may recall Donald Trump announcing his third run for presidency back in November. He is also facing possible indictment and criminal charges. In December, referrals were made to the Department of Justice regarding four felonies Trump may have committed. This begs the question: will Donald Trump be arrested in 2023? In our latest round of research-on-research, we asked respondents this exact question.

Overall, 48% of respondents do not believe that Trump will be arrested in 2023. This is followed by those who don’t know or don’t care at 30%. And, 22% of respondents think Donald Trump will be arrested.

Gender

When looking at response by gender, we see that males are more likely than females to have an opinion on whether or not Trump will be arrested. Females are 7% more likely than males to say they either don’t know or don’t care.

Political Affiliation

As expected, there are significant differences in opinion by political affiliation. Democrats are 31% more likely than Republicans to believe Trump will be arrested in 2023. On the other hand, Republicans are 42% more likely than Democrats to believe Trump will not be arrested in 2023. Those who did not identify as either Republican or Democrat were most likely to say they don’t know or don’t care if Trump is arrested. Here, we see up to 27 percentage points higher and 15 percentage points lower than the overall average by political party.

Age

When it comes to age, we see that respondents between the ages of 35 and 54 are the most likely to believe that Trump will be arrested. Those age 18-24 are the most likely to not know or care if Trump will be arrested. This is 7% more likely than any other age, and 8% more likely than the overall average.

Ethnicity

We also looked at response by ethnicity. African Americans are the most likely to believe Trump will be arrested in 2023 (6% higher than the overall average.) Caucasians are the most likely to believe Trump will not be arrested. Here, we see up to 19 percentage point differences by ethnicity.

Panel

Finally, we looked at response by panel. Here, we see that Panel H is the most likely to believe that Trump will be arrested at 30% (8% higher than the overall average.) Panel F is the least likely to believe he will be arrested at 53% (5% higher than the overall average.) Panels I and N are the most likely to say they don’t know or don’t care if Trump is arrested. We see up to a 14% difference between panels as seen between Panels F and I. We also see responses up to 8% higher and 9% lower than the overall averages by panel.

As shown in this blog, public opinion can vary greatly by both demographic and panel whether due to panel makeup, management, or a myriad of other factors. Differences like these can have a significant impact on your data. This is why strategic sample blending is the best practice to ensure your data is trustworthy and consistent. You’ll know that any changes are due to shifts in the market, not just inconsistencies in your sample.